What was until recently an unloved bull market has now reached the point of “euphoria,” and investors are “having a hard time imagining a decline,” according to Morgan Stanley.
After all, what’s not to love about a bull market that has only two directions – up… and up faster?
It’s being called a “market melt-up,” and the main fear people now have is of missing out.
Those caught up in the euphoria – and the fear of missing out – might want to consider the following:
- The S&P 500 is trading at 2.3 times its companies’ sales – a smidgen below its dot-com peak
- Price-earnings ratios have only been higher for 1% of the stock index’s history
- The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio is higher than before the crash of 1929, and higher than at any moment in history except right before the dot-com crash
Those of us who experienced the pain of the dot-com meltdown in 2002 and the financial crash of 2008 hope that the market will never become that irrationally exuberant again.
Back then, people justified their exuberance with the mantra that “this time it’s different.” [Read more…] “The Stock Market Never Goes Down Any More? (Really?!?)”